Newsom California recall election polls open

Should he stay or should he go?

After months of politicking, posturing and prognostication, polls opened Tuesday morning for Californians to decide whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be removed from office and, if so, who should replace him.

Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder spokesman Mike Sanchez said that voting on Tuesday was off to a “good start” and about 11,000 voters had already cast ballots by 8:30 a.m. Polls opened at 7 a.m.

The race has captured the attention of a deeply divided nation and, whatever the outcome, seems set to be cited as evidence of which direction the larger political winds are blowing.

For Republicans, a successful recall would not only deal Newsom a devastating defeat, but shatter the entrenched Democratic hegemony in Sacramento. Democrats have decried the effort as an underhanded power grab and warned of potentially dire consequences should it succeed.

The stakes were apparent Monday, when President Biden joined Newsom for a final campaign stop in Long Beach — the latest high-profile Democrat to lend political weight to the governor’s cause.

“This is not hyperbole: The eyes of the nation are on California,” Biden said. “Because the decision you’re about to make isn’t just going to have a huge impact on California, it’s going to reverberate around the nation. And quite frankly, it’s not a joke, around the world.”

Though 46 candidates are listed on the ballot as potential replacements, the race for weeks has been framed as essentially a head-to-head matchup between Newsom and conservative talk show host Larry Elder, the leading Republican candidate.

Elder is pacing the field of Newsom’s opponents with 38% of support from likely voters, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times
— a double-digit lead over Democrat candidate and YouTube star Kevin Paffrath, who garnered 10%.

“I think I’ve energized the state, I’ve energized the party. … That’s why they’re bringing in this heavy load,” Elder said, referencing the national Democratic surrogates who have campaigned for Newsom.

Democrats have regularly likened Elder to former President Trump, and said his ascension would undermine the state’s progressive values and imperil efforts to combat climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. Elder has said he would repeal the Newsom administration’s statewide mandates for students to wear masks in public school and vaccination requirements for healthcare workers and state employees.

“We may have defeated Donald Trump, but we have not defeated Trumpism,” Newsom said during Monday’s rally. “Trumpism is still on the ballot in California, and that’s why it’s so important, not just for all of us here — 40 million Americans strong in the nation’s largest and most populous state — but also to send a statement, all across the United States of America, that Trumpism has no place here, and Trumpism will be defeated all across the United States of America, because we’re better than that.”

Republicans, though, have long objected to Newsom’s handling of the pandemic and his use of executive powers. They’ve also taken him to task for participating in a gathering last year at the upscale French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley.

Newsom’s attendance at the event — with several unmasked people outside his household — directly contradicted the state’s COVID-19 guidance to the public at the time and ignited a wave of support for the recall from Californians frustrated with the governor for breaking his own rules.

“Gavin Newsom’s California includes raging wildfires, a crippling drought, a broken unemployment department and surging crime. Voters are ready for change and a new leader who will put the needs of their families before any political agenda,” California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement in mid-August.

The question of succession won’t come into play unless a majority of voters decide to remove Newsom from office. The same recent Berkeley IGS/Times poll showed that 60.1% of likely voters surveyed oppose recalling Newsom compared with 38.5% in favor of ousting him — the latest source of cautious optimism for Democrats after earlier canvasses showed a much tighter race.

However, it remains to be seen whether the results of the race will be known Tuesday night. And, should Newsom prevail, some Republicans already have begun laying the groundwork to contest the election, despite no evidence of voter issues.

Times staff writers Dakota Smith and Phil Willon contributed to this report.